A $180 million Van Gogh estimate sounds like record territory. A roughly $120 million Cezanne estimate does not, at least not at first glance. Yet Sotheby’s says both paintings in the Blaquier-Arrieta collection could set new artist auction records when the 12-work group comes to New York on November 18.
The reason is buried in the auction math.
Vincent van Gogh’s Chataigniers en fleurs is estimated at $180 million. The current Van Gogh auction record is $117.18 million, set at Christie’s in 2022 by Verger avec cypres. Even before bidding starts, Sotheby’s estimate sits more than $60 million above that published record.
Paul Cezanne’s Arlequin is different. Current reporting places its estimate at about $120 million, while Cezanne’s existing auction record is $137.79 million, set by La Montagne Sainte-Victoire at the same 2022 Christie’s sale. The comparison gets even more interesting: Cezanne’s current record also came from a $120 million hammer price. Buyer’s premium lifted that 2022 result to $137.79 million.
So how can a painting estimated below the record still be pitched as a possible record-breaker?
The estimate and the record are not the same kind of number.
Sotheby’s says presale estimates exclude buyer’s premium. Sotheby’s published auction results are generally inclusive of its premiums unless otherwise noted.
That means the $120 million estimate for Arlequin is not a forecast of the final published total. It is a guide to the lot before the premium that becomes part of the reported result after a successful sale.
There is another wrinkle: estimates are guides, not ceilings. A painting can sell below, within or above its estimate. For Cezanne, the hammer would not need to reach $137.79 million. Under Sotheby’s current New York buyer’s-premium schedule, a $120 million hammer would translate to roughly $138.68 million before taxes, just enough to edge past the existing published record.
Van Gogh’s setup is simpler. Chataigniers en fleurs carries a $180 million presale estimate, roughly $63 million above Van Gogh’s current $117.18 million premium-inclusive auction record. If bidding reaches anything close to that level, the record question becomes unavoidable.
For Cezanne, the interesting part is precisely the opposite. The estimate is below the existing record, so the headline only makes sense once buyer’s premium and the possibility of bidding above estimate are understood.
The Blaquier-Arrieta collection is expected to bring nearly $450 million in total. But the two marquee lots are useful for a more basic lesson: at the top end of the art market, a record-setting estimate and a record-setting sale are not the same thing.
One is a presale signal. The other only exists after the hammer falls.
Hero image: Wikimedia Commons